Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Result of the McCain-Palin Negative Attack Campaign

From today's New York Times article, "Obama Appeal Rises in Poll; No Gains for McCain Ticket."

In the last month, Obama's Favorable rating among Independents has gone from 34% to 51%, +17 points. Biden went from 31% to 47%, +16.

In the same time period, McCain's Favorable rating among Independents went from 42% to 39%, -3 points. Palin's rating went from 42% to 38%, -4 points.

McCain's Unfavorable rating went up an astounding 20 points, from 24% to 44%. Palin's Unfavorable rating jumped 14 points, from 19% to 33%.

Click on the image for a closer view.

Across the board, Obama and Biden made significant gains, whereas McCain and, especially Palin, went down, down, down.

The nasty attacks by McCain and Palin may have pleased the right-wing extremist Republican base, but there aren't enough of them to win an election without moderate Republicans and Independents.

What a bizarre campaign McCain has run. In a year when he absolutely had to court Independents, he seems only to have pandered to a dwindling extremist base.


Jeff said...

Well, you get the sense that he's been flailing for a while now, trying to find something that will stick. When you consider the fact that the guy he really wanted to pick as his running mate was Joe Lieberman (who has essentially consigned himself to oblivion if Obama wins), it shows how vulnerable he was to the arguments made by Karl Ropve and others that his only chance to win was to energize the Republican base and to peel off the Pro-Hillary/Anti-Obama faction of the Democratic vote.

I'm still afraid of the Bradley effect, but I'm hoping there's a reverse-Bradley effect out there too.

Liam said...

Now it seems McCain is putting a big emphasis on winning Pennsylvania, despite being around 10% behind Obama there. He doesn't say it, but obviously he's going after the white working-class racism that's keeping him alive in Ohio. He does say that he's going after Hillary voters, though what I've read about the polling seems to indicate that the Obama has just about won them over, and the McCain-Palin culture war and negative campaigning will alienate them either further.

Either McCain's people know something we don't, or they're breathtakingly incompetent. We won't know for about two weeks.