Monday, May 19, 2008

How Hillary Can Still Win

Forget the number of pledged delegates.

Forget the number of Super-Duper delegates.

Forget the popular vote.

(With or without Florida and Michigan.)

There are a few other scenarios we haven't considered in which Hillary can still win.


crystal said...

Is she really SOL with the popular vote? I still have hopes for her in that area.

Liam said...

Crystal, according to today's NYT, in her best possible scenario (counting Florida and Michigan and not giving Obama any of the "uncommitted" votes from Michigan, where he wasn't on the ballot), she is still close but no cigar. More reasonable scenarios show Obama much more ahead.

Liam said...


Actually, later in the article, its says:

"If all states with popular vote totals are counted — which would exclude four caucus states that have not released numbers — Mrs. Clinton would lead Mr. Obama by more than 26,000 votes out of more than 33 million cast. By other calculations, Mr. Obama is ahead in the popular vote."

Like I have said elsewhere, talking about "popular vote" in a primary is a bit of a smokescreen, since not ever contest has a tally of them. Even so, in this scenario, Hillary, not counting four states, Hillary only leads by 26,000 -- almost three times that were at an Obama rally in Portland this weekend.

cowboyangel said...

I think you're both missing one crucial point: Obama "had long ago called for ace of black magic times infinity with no backsies."

crystal said...

Thaks, Liam.

crystal said...

I meant, "thanks" :)